A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the country and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster should participate in the debate, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
